Ja’Marr Chase 2021 Receiving Yards Prop

Justin Bruni

With the 2021 NFL Draft concluded, we now begin the banter and premonition stage of the offseason! Sportsbooks have started posting player performance props, and bettors are running to plant their flags! This article will commence our player performance props series; first up, we have Ja’Marr Chase.

Ja'Marr Chase
cincinnati.com

1025+ Receiving Yards?

Betonline.Ag has posted an over/under 1025 receiving yards prop on Ja’Marr Chase for this upcoming season. The most recent rookies to hit the Over on this prop were AJ Brown (1075 Rec Yds) in 2019 and Justin Jefferson (1400 Rec Yds) last season. There are only six other rookie receivers to hit this prop across the past ten years; they include Michael Thomas (2016), Amari Cooper (2015), Mike Evans (2014,) Odell Beckham Jr. (2013), Keenan Allen (2013), and last but not least AJ GREEN (2011)!

All signals point to Chase hitting the over on this performance prop. Out of the gate, he offers NFL-Ready skillsets and a five-star bond with his quarterback, Joe Burrow. Chase joins a strong receiving core and will compete for targets early in the season, but I expect his production to surge more sooner than later during the 2021 campaign.

One advantage Ja’Marr will have over previous receivers to hit the prop is the extra game added to the NFL schedule. Adding the 17th game to the schedule lowers the required average yards per game from 64.12 down to 60.35; it’s not a huge margin, but every little bit helps when you’re ‘Chasing’ a total (Pun Intended). The extra regular season game also allows more upside to hit the total in the event of an injury; Odell Beckham Jr. hit 1300+ receiving yards in his 2011 rookie season with just 12 games played.

 

Ja'marr Chase
cincinnati.com

Volume is Key

Joe Burrow averaged a little over 40.4 passing attempts per game last season as a rookie, so we know there will be more than enough passing volume to support multiple 1000+ yard receivers in this offense. I would be willing to bet that Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase earn over 1000 receiving yards this year (DM’s are Open). Tee Higgins is an electric receiver, and I enjoyed watching him last year; however, Chase is a more complete receiver, a bloody thoroughbred at that! He can line up inside and outside the numbers and create separation at every level. Chase will take over the #2 role sooner than the Bengals are comfortable sharing with the world, and he’ll take over the #1 role by the halfway point of the 2021 season.

The Bengals are in a competitive division and will play from behind in the majority of their games. The landing spot couldn’t have been any better for Chase to hit the 1025 receiving yards prop, it’s a Perfect Storm. The only potential threat to hit the Under would a be an injury keeping him off the field for a majority of the year; i’m not betting on that. Hammer the Over before we get any early line movement!

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