Tyreek Hill: Receiving Yard Prop

Justin Bruni
Tyreek Hill
Colin E. Braley|Credit: AP

Hammer the Over

Fanduel has Tyreek Hill’s receiving yard prop set at 1099.5 yards. The Over and Under are both paying -112. You need to HAMMER the Over on this one! The only way Hill doesn’t hit this prop is by missing significant time. Hill has averaged 81 receiving yards per game over the last three seasons. Through 16 games, that average would total nearly 1300 yards. Within the same period, Hill’s only missed five games, including four from last season. Based on those numbers, Hill could miss up to two games and still hit the Over on this prop.

If Tyreek Hill does play 16 full games this season, he would only need to record 68 receiving yards per game to hit the total. That would be a massive regression from his typical production. The only issue with Hill’s production is his targets per game. He’s averaged 7.6 targets per game the past three seasons; fantasy owners would love to see that number climb in 2020. Hill has averaged 15.8 receiving yards per reception the past three years. Hill could quickly grab another 500 receiving yards per year with just two other targets per game. Feed the Man!!

Final Take

Many suspected a reduced role for Hill and other pass catchers with the emergence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. However, with Damien Williams opting out of 2020, it’s evident that the offense will need a balanced attack. I expect Hill’s volume to rise this year and mirror production similar to 2018. That season, he recorded nearly 1500 yards and landed 12 receiving touchdowns.

If you’ve been following TITTH, you’d know I’m absolutely in love with Tyreek Hill. He’s ranked as my WR2, and I’m easily taking him at the end of the first round. He’s an X-Factor in one of the best offenses in the NFL; the Kansas City Chiefs are not the same offense without him. Slam the Over and make some easy money on this prop!

 

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