Rob Gronkowski Total Receiving Yards Prop: Over

Nick Davis
Rob Gronkowski
photo by Kevin C. Cox /Getty Images

Don’t Call it a Comeback, Rob Gronkowski has Done This for Years

Rob Gronkowski is back in the NFL! And he is paired up with Brady! So use this knowledge to bet the Over for his Total Receiving Yards prop. Sportsbook has set the line at 600.5 receiving yards on the season. The under is even money and the Over is at -130. I fully expect the Over to become more the favorite as the season gets closer due to bettors actually comfortable placing bets knowing the season will go on.

This line at 600.5 is borderline absurd. Gronkowski is blessed playing with the same QB throughout his entire career. The QB-TE chemistry is already there, there will be no learning curve to stunt his production. When Brady is in trouble, he’s going to look for the guy he knows and TE is an easy safety value. Gronkowski will provide the same huge target he has for Brady that he has done over the last decade.

Even in his worse years, Gronkowski Flirted with 600

So the way to look at this bet is Gronkowski’s yearly production. In only three out of nine years he played, Gronkowski did not surpass 600 receiving yards. Well, basic math tells you that there’s a 1/3 chance he won’t break 600. But if we dig a little deeper, we see one year as his rookie year and two years shortened by injury. In the remaining seasons, if he plays 11 games, Gronk smashes the 600 barrier.

Last year, the Buccaneers’ TEs did not perform anywhere close to Gronkowski’s previous levels. O.J Howard started 14 games and had two fewer receptions than his backup Cameron Brate. That’s… not good. The third receiver last year was Bashaud Perriman and he only started four games due to injury. Perriman is not even on the team this year. So slide Gronkowski into that third receiver slot and you got your 600 yards Over paying money.

Final Take

They say Gronkowski has slimmed down, he won’t be the same player, yada, yada, yada. I don’t care about any of that. Arians aired out the ball so much he got Winston 30 touchdowns and interceptions. There will be plenty of opportunities for Gronkowski to provide the same old production. As long as he stays healthy, him and Brady will bring that connection to Tampa Bay and hopefully bring their winning ways. The year off for Gronkowski probably did him wonders for his battered body, I think 2020 will be a resurgence of respect for Rob Gronkowski.


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