Gardner Minshew Total Touchdown Prop: Over

Justin Bruni
Gardner Minshew
Harry Aaron | Credit: Getty Images

Through All Odds, Gardner Minshew Showed Promise

The Gardner Minshew total passing touchdown prop is 21 on sportsbook.ag. The Over is paying even money while the Under is paying -130. Minshew had 21 passing touchdowns last season in just 14 games, how could I not HAMMER the Over on this one? Even though Minshew had his fair share of rookie blunders in 2019, he was a consistent quarterback who showed promise for 2020.

Minshew tallied thirteen touchdowns and two interceptions through his first eight games of his rookie season. His ability to protect the ball in the passing game was worthy of applause. He did, however, have some issues keeping his hands on the ball, losing five fumbles across the same eight-game span. He would finish the season with 21 passing touchdowns and six total interceptions.

Gardner Minshew Will Be Playing From Behind

Minshew was running for his life last season behind an offensive line that finished 2019 ranked 26th. I don’t expect much improvement from the O-line this season. Andrew Norwell and Brandon Linder are great but could be better. Jawaan Taylor is a wild card, while Cam Robinson and AJ Cann eat trash. Robinson let up 45 pressures in just 14 games last season, ranking him 6th most in the league while Cann is coming off his lowest graded season in the NFL (55.3).

I know what you’re thinking, if I think the O-line is terrible, what about the defense?! Yannick Ngakoue is their best playmaker, but he’s demanding a trade, if they hold onto him and build on their rookies, they’d have a chance of being average at best. The odds for the Jaguars to finish with the worst team record in 2020 is +250.

Final Take

I can see why a sportsbook might tease a low total passing touchdown prop for a QB that isn’t well protected. But unfortunately for the book, they aren’t considering how often the Jaguars will be playing from behind. If you plan on taking the Under here, you have to commit to Minshew regressing in 2020, and that’s a bet I won’t take.

Keep in mind that Nick Foles went down in Week 1 last year and even started two games after his injury. Realistically, Minshew met his production in 13.5 games. So again, tell me how I cannot TAKE it to the HIZZY on this one? This number WILL increase, so jump on it while you can, someone at sportsbook.ag is about to be unemployed.

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