Nick Chubb Season Rushing Yards Prop at 1250.5: Under

Nick Davis
Nick Chubb
AP Photo/David Richard

Nick Chubb Will Still Eat, But Cleveland Has More Mouths to Feed

Sportsbook.ag set the yearly rushing yard total for Nick Chubb at 1250.5. The Over is sitting at -115 while the Under is at -125. We have to hammer the Under for this. With the addition of Austin Hooper, the full-year availability of Kareem Hunt, and historical precedent will factor into Nick Chubb not breaking 1251 rushing yards.

Cleveland Browns Focusing on Pass Attack

This is not an attack on Nick Chubb. Rather, a realistic view of the Browns offense. The Browns off-season was focused on building around Baker Mayfield. Adding former All-Pro tackle Jack Conklin and drafting Jedrick Wills in the first round will help both the rushing and passing attack. But by adding tight end Austin Hooper, the Browns showed their hand on where they want to put the ball. The Cleveland Browns are focused on airing the ball out.

Kareem Hunt is always mentioned when you bring up Nick Chubb succeeding in the upcoming season. Hunt was only available for half of the season, but racked up 80 total touches. Easy math puts him at 160 touches for the season, but we know that number could be higher. Hunt brings the same impact as Chubb rushing, and is twice the receiver of Chubb. Hunt caught 37 balls in 8 games, while Chubb caught one fewer pass over an entire season.

Nick Chubb is Fighting History

Nick Chubb is a revelation in Cleveland. Even though history is stacked against him, Chubb improved from year one to year two increasing his rushing yards almost 600 yards. Historically (recent history), if a Browns running back enjoys massive success one year, they seemingly cannot replicate it. Jamal Lewis ran for over 1300 yards and nine touchdowns in 2007. In 2008, Lewis regressed 300 yards and four touchdowns.  Reuben Droughns ran for 1232 yards in 2005, the next year, he ran for only 758 (first year of Lewis in Cleveland).

Lastly, can’t forget Peyton Hillis. He rumbled for 1177 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010. The next year, he didn’t even have half of that production. We all hope to forget the hurt of Hillis not taking the torch and leading the Browns, instead he fell off the face of the Earth.

Final Take

Even with the success Chubb has enjoyed his first two years, there’s numerous factors that will show a statistical regression. I’m still bullish on Chubb and I cannot wait to see how the Cleveland Browns offense will hum this year. But looking at the offense, there are going to be some opportunities taken from Chubb and spread around. I’m not betting that Chubb won’t be the man in Cleveland for years to come, but betting that Cleveland will utilize all of their weapons.

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