Dak Prescott is Peaking
I’m taking the Over on the Dak Prescott total touchdown prop set at 27.5 at Fanduel Sportsbooks. Shame on me for not grabbing the number a few weeks ago when it was at 26.5. Regardless, this offense will be unique again in 2020, and I’m going to profit on it!
Dak Prescott had him a year in 2019, going off for 30 passing touchdowns and nearly 5000 passing yards. Prescott looked comfortable leading the way for the Cowboys, and it showed in the total team production. The Cowboys finished second in the league in total passing yards (4751), fifth in total rushing yards (2153), and first in total offense (6904).
Dak has only finished one campaign with over 27.5 passing touchdowns, last season. Last year, Prescott’s 30 scores were earned across just 12 games. Dak failed to complete a touchdown pass in four games while adding two games of one touchdown. Meaning, over his top-ten productive games he averaged 2.8 touchdowns per game.
Dak’s New Weapon
The biggest reason I’m on Prescott’s prop is the emergence of CeeDee Lamb. While I respect journeymen, Randall Cobb and Jason Witten, they were clogging up some offensive production. Their lack of explosiveness and athleticism was apparent. With them departing in 2020, there will be roughly 166 targets for Dak to dole out. Lamb will receive the lion’s share of those targets.
Lamb has all the tangible skills to be a deadly weapon in the NFL. Pairing him with the most productive offense from 2019 doesn’t seem fair. Lamb has superior footwork and route-running skills and drawn comparisons to Deandre Hopkins and Davante Adams. He could easily surpass Michael Gallup on the depth chart as the season progresses.
Dak will have three receivers that could all legitimately get over 100 targets. Last year Amari Cooper led the team with 79 catches on 119 targets with Gallup adding in 66 catches on 113 targets, so with more than 150 targets to allocate, I see each of these receivers having heavy workloads.
I’m excited to see how defenses plan on keeping up with all this Dallas talent. Realistically, this is an offense where Dak could easily surpass 35+ passing touchdowns. The posted number is so low because of his historical production. However, those years the team was not this stacked with talent outside of Ezekiel Elliott. If the name on the back of his jersey said Ryan, this number would be 34.5 for sure. Grab the 27.5 before the number climbs again!