Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop Bet: Over

Tom Brady
NBC Sports

Tom Brady Reloads for Next Season

Tom Brady’s total passing yards prop is set at 4224.5 at Fanduel. The Over/Under are both going for -112, and I’m threading the over on this one. Brady exceeded the 4224.5 line two out of the last three seasons. He now has the offensive weapons to do it again. 

Tom Brady Produces with Little Ammo

Brady finished as QB12 last year with an offense stocked with mediocre passing weapons. The Patriots were top-five in the league last year for pass attempts (620). Not bad considering the company Brady kept. Julian Edelman and James White accounted for 40% of the target share for the Patriots last season.

Edelman finished with 100 catches, White finished with 72, but no other Patriot topped 29 catches. The lack of offensive weapons was obvious and clearly factored into Brady’s departure from New England. 

Why Tom Brady Will Have It Easier in Tampa Bay

Brady averaged 4329 passing yards and 588 pass attempts for the past three seasons in an offense that still leaned on the run. The Patriots ran the ball ninth-most in 2019 (447), top-three in 2018 (478), and 11th most in 2017 (448).

The Buccaneers have led the league in passing yards the past two seasons. While the club neglects the run game, they continue to double down on the passing attack. Tampa Bay added Rob Gronkowski to an already potent passing offense. Also, the Bucs added offensive tackle Tristin Wirfs with the 13th overall pick in the draft for extra protection for Brady. 

While the Buccaneers did add RB Ke’shawn Vaughn in the third round, they did not build the necessary depth at running back to crack the top-ten for most rush attempts. Don’t give me any of the, “They’re going to run the ball more talk”. I want Ronald Jones freed as much as the next guy, but it won’t be in Tampa Bay with Brady leading the way. #FreeRojo

The secondary for the Bucs is also pretty dismal. Expect shootouts fairly often with a less-than-potent defense paired with the offensive talent of the NFC South. Brady will be in a position to drive the Buccaneers Bus and deliver in a very pass friendly scheme. 

Final Takes

If you’re on the Over, pull the trigger on this prop right away. If the Bucs add a guy like Antonio Brown, this number will climb or the value will drop from -112. Same goes for the under, I’d say to wait on the Bucs and make sure they aren’t done loading up for TB12 and a Super Bowl Run. 

Although Brady experiences nothing but success in his career, the public’s hate for him grows every year. Fantasy owners let him fall down draft boards, fans are always worried about his age, and there’s just a general disdain for the Patriots. People keep doubting or disregarding him. I suppose that’s how the line goes, “You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” Tread lightly Mahomes! 


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